"An ingenious introduction to the mathematics of rational thinking." --Kirkus "Life is shot through with uncertainty, but in this fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting book, Tom Chivers shows why this needn't condemn us to powerlessness and panic. I finished Everything Is Predictable not only better informed about a captivating branch of mathematics, but with an invigorating sense of greater purchase on the world." --Oliver Burkeman, New York Times bestselling author of Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals "One thing that is perfectly predictable is that Tom Chivers writes terrific books. This one is no exception: it's witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you." --Tim Harford, bestselling author of The Undercover Economist "A remarkable book by a remarkable writer about a remarkable theorem. The statistical chance of it not changing how you see the world forever is zero.

" --Will Storr, author of The Science of Storytelling "From assessing the effectiveness of treatments, to the way consciousness works and the way we make decisions, Tom Chivers makes a compelling case that Bayes' Theorem is the one formula that everyone should understand." --Ananyo Bhattacharya, author of The Man From the Future "From an eighteenth-century cleric to the workings of the brain, Chivers explores the impact of Bayes theorem; the mathematical basis for learning under uncertainty. After neatly summarizing the history of probability and statistics, he handles the challenging and controversial Bayesian approach to scientific evidence, induction, decision-making, statistical modelling, prediction, and human perception and reasoning. All with his customary light touch, and full of quotes and vivid stories. A filling but very tasty book." --David Spiegelhalter, author of The Art of Statistics.