Author''s Note As I put this book to bed, I know we are in for still another year during which Washington will provide no rest for the weary. This book is about getting rich carefully; Washington is writing a serial novel about bankrupting us slowly. We would have loved to think that after the bitter conclusion of the October 2013 debt ceiling fracas we could at last invest without endless daily intrusions from politicians, many of whom don''t know the difference between a stock and a bond. But let''s be realistic. Politics has sewn its way into the very fabric of our daily lives, in large part because our nation has spent beyond its means (and yet seems to have so little to show for it). The fabric''s going to choke us several times a year now if we aren''t mindful of how harmful politicians of both parties have become to our portfolios. As you will see in this book, I don''t think it''s for me to opine on what Washington should or shouldn''t do about debt ceilings, tax rates or budget appropriations. I don''t care if you are a Tea Party member or a tax-and-spend liberal.
I care about making you money. I am focused on the savings side of your ledger. Given that Washington''s going to be wrangling about matters that directly impact your portfolio for years to come, let me share some tips gleaned from what has worked each time these hideous interchanges have occurred so that you can survive-and possibly even thrive-through the partisan pulverizing that Washington is now guaranteed to do to your savings. Within the last three years, our stock market has had four separate run-ins with politics that caused you to lose a lot of money: the 2011 federal budget bust, which led to a ratings agency debt downgrade; the 2012 fiscal cliff debacle, with its concomitant tax increases; the spring 2013 failure to avoid the federal sequester; and, finally, the pointless fall 2013 government shutdown and debt ceiling clash. All four battles curtailed business, eroded confidence, and hurt your pocketbook. Even if this litany of pain can''t be broken, is there any way to profit from it? The short answer is yes. Each Washington tussle has the same familiar pattern. All four bitter budget contests were basically scheduled events, meaning that you could tell that they were about to occur because they were provoked by deadlines that were clearly visible to all.
In each case, approximately one month before each deadline, you began to hear chatter, typically from political commentators (not businesspeople), that Republicans and Democrats might be at loggerheads over some sort of budget issue or tax resolution that had to be agreed upon or the government would cease to function. Soon after, you got pleas from various money managers, who assured you there was no need to worry about the upcoming turmoil; all you needed to do was "stay the course," because it''s just politics and every time we get one of these political dramas, the action may become twisted and tortured but all will work out in the end. While, ultimately, these "cooler heads" are right that we haven''t defaulted yet and most likely won''t, their "stay the course" admonition only makes sense if you are willing to experience heavy losses-realized or unrealized-and then hope to recoup those losses once the issues are resolved. That is not now nor has it ever been my style. I say if you can dodge big declines and get back into the market at lower levels, you should do so, at least with some of your money, and not just sit there and take an undeserved beating. But here''s the trick. You must take aggressive action and do some selling the moment you hear these false reassurances and not one second later. You cannot afford to wait.
Here''s why: In all four of these go-rounds, the stock market lost on average about 8 percent from the moment a potential skirmish began to be talked about-usually one month before the drop-dead deadline that''s supposed to trigger a default or a downgrade-to when the war was finally concluded. Given this consistent peak-to-trough decline, you would be nuts not to do some selling the instant you hear the words "looming" and "Washington" in the same sentence. You have to overcome the complacency bred by smug money managers who blithely assure you with Shakespearean wisdom that All''s Well that Ends Well. That''s because when you hear their soothing entreaties, you are at the exquisite moment at which you can still take action to preserve some of your hard-earned dollars before that coming 8 percent plunge. Then and there, you need to trim whatever stock portion of your portfolio you can trade, be it an IRA, 401k, discretionary, or whatever; it doesn''t matter. Try to sell at least 10 percent of your holdings before the alarm bells go off, because that''s probably the last moment at which you will get prices that are high enough and worthwhile enough to exit whole. You can take that newfound cash and put it safely on the sidelines, readying it for the inevitable and brutal denouement that all of these phony reassurers didn''t see coming during the downgrade debacle, the fiscal cliff, the sequester and the debt ceiling rows. Similarly, if you are about to make your regular contribution to one of those retirement accounts, try to hold off and wait for the ensuing stock decline.
Having that money taken "off the table" so as to be ready for the inevitable buy point is akin to saving up for a sale at the mall. You need to have cash at the ready to take advantage of the bargains Washington''s about to give you. Then I want you to be prepared to buy several of the stocks that I recommend here, which I believe will hold up under any politically engendered onslaught; they have catalysts that will not be stopped by the shenanigans in the Capitol. You have to pull the trigger at the point of maximum fear, because these are the kinds of stocks that rarely get clocked except in a sell-off that''s extraneous to the performance of their underlying companies. Now, how will you know when to begin to reinsert your money into the market? Easy: A few weeks after the exquisite sell moment, as the market has begun to plummet, you are going to hear FROM THE VERY SAME PEOPLE WHO TOLD YOU NOT TO WORRY that, oops, the divisions in Washington are far more serious than they''d thought, maybe even worse than the last dispute. They will suggest that perhaps it is time to start selling some stocks in preparation for the "coming" decline even though the market''s already been rolling over for days now. Sadly, for those who don''t understand the rhythm of these events, it will then already be too late to take defensive action. In fact, when the "stay-the-coursers" change their tune and tell you that it is prudent to raise some cash, that''s precisely when you must begin to reapply your sidelined money into the best-of-breed names that are described in this book.
As we get closer and closer to each fated deadline, it pays to get more aggressive with that sidelined cash. However, do not wait until the last day to do your buying because history shows that some traders will get wind of a settlement ahead of others. You snooze until that last hour, you lose; the best opportunity will have come and gone. Now I know that this is an intense way to approach these moments. You can argue that you don''t need to avail yourself of these sell-offs, but as you will soon see, if you want to get rich, carefully, it''s precisely these kinds of declines that can make a big difference in doing so over the long-term. You are about to read about plenty of other, easier ways to make money, but you now know what''s worked before and what I believe can work the next time a divided, dysfunctional government raids your nest egg. October 2013 How does something so fascinating, so enjoyable and, yes, most important, so lucrative, keep losing the hearts, minds and wallets of the American people? Every day when I come to work on Wall Street I now ponder the question of how Americans have turned so decidedly against investing in stocks. As I make my way through downtown Manhattan each morning, traversing the canyons that used to teem with eager young associates and stentorian partners excited for the ringing of the opening bell, I now marvel at the neighborhood''s symbolic neglect and emptiness.
In the thirty years I''ve toiled in the financial district, I have seen it transformed from the pulsating engine of corporate progress to an ossified antique, a museum of what capitalism used to look like, with the bustling bespoke professionals supplanted by frazzled tour guides, arms extended in the air, bearing different colored umbrellas to be sure their flocks don''t stray down some blind alley filled with empty offices that still bear signs of long-ago forgotten or deceased stock broking firms. Yet at the exact same time Wall Street''s star has dimmed both metaphorically and in reality, the profits left for those stalwarts who have managed to hang on have been nothing short of spectacular, among the greatest ever recorded. Interest dwindles even as takeovers and acquisitions, those instant wealth creators, occur with a velocity and magnitude that would have been undreamed of just a few years ago. People avoid the mention of stocks even as we have blown through all sorts of levels of the Dow Jones Average that would have been unthinkable six years ago, when the market had lost half its value and companies were bleeding from their eyeballs. Few even seem to care that we are getting back to those vaunted NASDAQ prices of the turn of this century, except this time the technology stocks that dominate that index represent good values. They aren''t about to explode in your faces like the Internet dot bombs did so hideously in 2000 and 2001. In fact, they could be in the midst of a sustained run. Yet, sadly, these.