Preface ix Acknowledgments xxi 1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False? 1 If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn't Believe It 1 The Mythological Correlation 8 Always Look at It Differently 16 When You Are Really, Really Wrong 22 2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable? 31 Fathoming the Unfathomable 31 Ignore the Rock in the Bushes 32 Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance 33 The Shocking Truth About Yield Curves 38 What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You 52 The Presidential Term Cycle 60 3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now? 69 It Isn't Your Fault-- Blame Evolution 69 Cracking the Stone Age Code-- Pride and Regret 75 The Great Humiliator's Favorite Tricks 87 Get Your Head Out of the Cave 89 4 Capital Markets Technology 97 Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology Into Practice 97 It's Good While It Lasts 103 Forecast with Accuracy, Not Like a Professional 108 Better Living Through Global Benchmarking 116 5 When There's No There There! 135 Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons, and Pulling a Gertrude 135 In the Center Ring-- Oil Versus Stocks 141 Sell in May Because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect 152 6 No, It's Just The Opposite 161 When You Are Wrong-- Really, Really, Really Wrong 161 Multiplier Effects and the Heroin- Addicted iPhone Borrower 169 Let's Trade This Deficit for That One 177 The New Gold Standard 182 7 Shocking But True 191 Supply and Demand and That's It 191 Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar-- What Does It Matter? 206 8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone Age Brain 219 That Predictable Market 219 Anatomy of a Bubble 229 Some Basic Bear Rules 237 What Causes a Bear Market? 257 Contents vii 9 Putting It All Together 267 Stick with Your Strategy and Stick It to TGH 267 Four Rules That Count 272 Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win 289 When the Heck Do You Sell? 295 Conclusion: Time to Say Goodbye 303 Transformationalism 304 Appendix A: Causal Correlations and the Correlation Coefficient 309 Appendix B: News You Can't Use 313 Appendix C: Greater Fools 315 Appendix D: Annualized Versus Average 317 Appendix E: The Wizard of Oz and an Oz of Gold 319 Appendix F: 1980 Revisited 323 Appendix G: Why 2023 Will Be Like 1967's "Summer of Love" for the Stock Market 327 Appendix H: Popular but Problematic 331 Appendix I: Covered Calls-- Covering What? 335 Notes 337 About the Authors 343 Index 345.