Imagine this scenario. You walk up to a roulette table and see on the digital display that the ball has landed on black the past 20 spins in a row. Now you ask a dozen gamblers what you should bet on. They're likely to fall into two categories. One group shouts, "Bet BLACK! Black is hot!" The other group yells, "Bet RED! Red is due!" In reality, both of those groups are wrong. Every spin of the roulette wheel is an independent event. And independent events have no impact on future events. Why do you think casinos install those digital display boards, tracking which numbers and colors have hit most recently? Are they trying to help you accurately predict the future pattern? Hardly.
They know there's no predictable pattern at the roulette table (or the baccarat table, crap table, or slot machine). Here's where apophenia comes in. Apophenia is the term neurologists use to define the reality that humans are universally looking for patterns in random information. Various theories attempt to explain why people often attribute the wrong conclusions to information, but no one debates the fact that apophenia happens all over the place and is on full display in casinos. The most common form of apophenia is known as the "gambler's fallacy," where gamblers believe they've discovered patterns from random bits of information. If you've sat at a blackjack table, I guarantee you've heard many bold claims by the players, dealer, and likely even your own deceitful mind, all falsely based on the gambler's fallacy. One of the most common is believing that the other players at the table have an impact on whether you win or lose. This false belief comes in many forms.
"It's a team sport." "You need a strong anchor at third base." "He just took the dealer's bust card." It doesn't matter where in the world you play this game. There's a universal belief among gamblers that the game can be beaten with a solid cast of players. and a cooperative dealer. But that one player who isn't performing as well as you is the reason you've been losing. (You have to come up with a new excuse if you happen to be playing alone.
) But the reality is that the other players at the table have no impact on your odds. Another player is just as likely to make a decision that results in you winning or losing the hand. You can play with the world's smartest card counter or an orangutan and your odds won't change one bit.