FOREWORD ix PREFACE xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xxi ABOUT THE AUTHOR xxiii 1 Even Shit Floats in High Tide 1 Introduction 1 The Macros Matter 3 Capitalism: The Pyramid Scheme 5 Tier 0 5 Tier 1 5 Tier 2 5 Tier 3 7 Tier 4 7 Tier 5 8 Role of the Central Banks and Regulators 8 Virtuous Cycles 10 Wealth Effect 14 An Interplay of Incentives 14 Investor Dilemma 17 Conclusion 20 2 Hindsight''s 2020 23 Introduction 23 Structural versus Event-Driven Crisis 24 Structural Crisis 25 Event-Driven Crisis 25 The Crisis Timeline 26 Black Monday 1987 27 Dot-Com Bubble 1999-2000 29 The Great Recession of 2008 31 The Year of Crises - 2020 35 If It Smells Like Funk 38 Greed Is Good, or Is It? 38 Consistent Overvaluation 39 Failed Funding Rounds 39 Down Rounds 40 Funding Gaps 40 Krishnakumar754404_ftoc.indd 5 19-12-2020 01:14:28 vi Contents Data Collection 42 Ecosystem Pulse 43 Team 44 Product 45 Competition 47 Funding 48 Conclusion 49 3 Be Your Own Shrink 53 Introduction 53 Crisis Is Here 54 Put on Your Seat Belt First 54 The Emotional Gym 56 Organisational Emotional Fitness 60 You and Your Business: A 3D Model 61 Passion 62 Skills 63 Demand 64 Step Away 64 Switch Off or Snooze 65 Mentoring 67 Executive Coaching 68 Connect and Inspire 69 Conclusion 71 4 The Surgical Strike 75 Introduction 75 The Startup Bell Curve 77 A 3D Plan of Action 79 Survival: First-Order Optimisation 79 Normalisation: Second-Order Optimisation 79 Explode into the Future: Third-Order Optimisation 80 First-Order Optimisation 81 Cash Flow Is Oxygen 82 Soul Searching 83 What''s the Heart of Your Business? 84 Where Are You Relevant? 86 Is Your Cost Structure Optimal? 87 Scenario Planning 89 The Soul versus Value Quadrant 90 Cold Decisions, Humane Execution 93 Communication Architecture 94 Clients: Increase Incoming 97 Krishnakumar754404_ftoc.indd 6 19-12-2020 01:14:28 Contents vii Suppliers and Vendors: Decrease Outgoing 99 The Firm: Align Culture 100 Team: Handle with Care 101 What Next? 105 Conclusion 106 5 Check Your Mirrors 107 Introduction 107 Second-Order Optimisation 108 The Who 110 The Why 112 The How Much 115 The How 118 Ask Them 119 Get Them 120 Understand Them 121 Behaviour versus Value 124 Conclusion 127 6 Map the Trip 129 Introduction 129 Infrastructure 130 Policy Infrastructure 130 Payment Services Directive (PSD 2) 132 Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies 133 India''s Aadhaar 134 Drug Discovery 136 Technology Infrastructure 136 Rise of the Machines 137 AWS and Innovation 138 Broadband and Video Genre 139 Ecosystem Infrastructure 141 Talent Infrastructure 141 Funding Infrastructure 143 The Missing Link 147 Conclusion 149 7 From Fiats to Ferraris 151 Introduction 151 The 4D Lens 152 Time: Longevity 153 Time: Velocity 153 Space: Scale 154 Space: Weight 154 Krishnakumar754404_ftoc.indd 7 19-12-2020 01:14:28 viii Contents The Business Model Barometer 155 Contractually Predictable 157 Enterprise Software 157 Software as a Service (SaaS) 158 Subscription 159 Behaviourally Predictable 160 Advertising 162 Transactional 163 Hybrid 164 Marketplace 164 Mix, Match and Moonshot 166 Conclusion 168 8 Hit Refresh 171 Introduction 171 Third-Order Optimisation 172 The Pirate Metrics 173 Shades of Grey 174 Preserve the Soul 177 Continue Experimentation 178 Build for a Crisis 180 Tip 1: Values Make or Break Firms 181 Tip 2: It''s the Team, Idiot 182 Tip 3: Decentralising Decision-Making 183 Tip 4: Data-Driven Accountability 184 Tip 5: Embracing Cost Consciousness 184 Tip 6: Growing Responsibly 185 Tip 7: Tapping into a Support Network 186 Tip 8: Mind the Mind 186 Conclusion 189 9 Winner Winner Chicken Dinner 191 Introduction 191 The Macro Environment 192 What History Tells Us 193 Wear Your Mask First 196 Cold Decisions and Humane Execution 198 Consumer Is King 201 Infrastructure Catalysts 203 Business Model Evaluation 206 All Change 208 Conclusion 212.