Preface Acknowledgments Chapter 1: What is a Predictable Surprise? A Preview Part I. Prototypes of Predictable Surprises Chapter 2: September 11 - the Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise Chapter 3: The Collapse of Enron and the Failure of Auditor Independence Part II. Why Don't We Act on What We Know? Chapter 4: Cognitive Roots: The Role of Human Biases Chapter 5: Organizational Roots: The Role of Institutional Failures Chapter 6: Political Roots: The Role of Special-Interest Groups Part III. Preventing Predictable Surprises Chapter 7: Recognition: Identifying Emerging Threats Earlier Chapter 8: Prioritization: Focusing on the Right Problems Chapter 9: Mobilization: Building Support for Preventative Action Chapter 10: Future Predictable Surprises Appendices.