CONTENTSPreface to the second edition 11. Introduction and RecommendationsThomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 31.1 Scenarios 41.2 Thinking in the long term 71.3 Policy recommendations 92. Scenarios for the future of eastern Europe's unresolvedconflictsThomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 152.1 Introduction - the Ukraine effect 152.2 Overarching conditions 172.
2.1 Frozen diplomacy? 172.2.2 Russia 182.2.3 Stronger nations 242.2.4 The European Union 252.
2.5 Potential for incremental change 272.3 Scenarios 292.3.1 The Donbas 302.3.2 Transdniestria 372.3.
3 Abkhazia 402.3.4 South Ossetia 432.3.5 Nagorny Karabakh 462.4 Conclusions 503. The State of the Donbas: A study of eastern Ukraine'sseparatist-held areasNikolaus von Twickel 543.1 Introduction 553.
2 Politics 583.2.1 The creation of the 'people's republics' 583.2.1 Operation Girkin 593.2.2 Russification and de-Russification 613.2.
3 Agents rather than actors 623.2.4 Parties and parliaments 643.2.5 Large bureaucracies with little control 663.2.6 Leadership changes - the Luhansk putsch 683.2.
7 The killing of Alexander Zakharchenko 703.2.8 External relations 723.2.9 Relations with Russia 733.2.10 Relations with the rest of Ukraine 743.3 Economy 763.
3.1 Decline set in long before 2014 763.3.2 The trade blockade of 2017 793.3.3 The coal industry 833.3.4 Brain drain - a demographic catastrophe? 863.
3.5 Is Moscow subsidising a black hole? 893.3.6 Low wages and meagre pensions 913.3.7 The rise of Vneshtorgservis and Serhiy Kurchenko 923.3.8 Return of the oligarchs? 963.
3.9 The Luhansk 'People's Republic' - a different case? 983.4 Society 993.4.1 Not an ethnic conflict 993.4.2 Social cohesion 1013.4.
3 How popular are the 'people's republics'? 1023.4.4 The media 1033.4.5 Human rights - the MGBs and dissent 1063.4.6 International isolation 1073.5 Security 1093.
5.1 Introduction 1093.5.2 The armed formations 1123.5.3 Asymmetric mutual deterrence 1143.5.4 The fighting along the Contact Line 1153.
5.5 Disengagement 1173.5.6 International presence: the OSCE SpecialMonitoring Mission 1183.5.7 Prospects for a peacekeeping mission 1193.5.8 Limits for a peacekeeping mission 1223.
6 Outlook 1234. Transdniestria TodayThomas de Waal 1274.1 Introduction 1284.2 Background 1314.3 Negotiations - one step forward and two steps back 1344.4 Politics and society in Transdniestria 1384.5 The economy 1404.6 The grey zone 1445.
Abkhazia TodayThomas de Waal 1495.1 Introduction 1505.2 Deadlocked negotiations 1535.3 Domestic politics and Russian influence 1545.4 Economy and society 1595.5 Inguri power division 1665.6 Tbilisi's policy 1675.7 The international outlook 1716.
South Ossetia TodayThomas de Waal 1756.1 Introduction 1766.2 Background 1786.3 Political life 1816.4 Security and borderisation 1846.5 Economy and society 1866.6 Links with Georgia 1887. The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in its Fourth DecadeThomas de Waal 1917.
1 Introduction 1927.2 A new conflict 1977.3 A long road to peace 2017.4 International context 2057.5 Challenges for the next five years 211About the authors 215.