Introduction 1 Part 1: The Certainty of Uncertainty: Probability Basics 5 CHAPTER 1: Seeing Probability in Everyday Life 7 CHAPTER 2: Teaming up with Probability Terms and Rules 15 CHAPTER 3: Picturing Probabilities: Venn Diagrams, Trees, and Bayes' Theorem 29 Part 2: Counting on Probability and Betting to Win 43 CHAPTER 4: Setting the Contingency Table with Probabilities 45 CHAPTER 5: Unraveling Counting Rules 59 CHAPTER 6: Against All Odds: Probability in Gaming 75 Part 3: From A to Binomial: Basic Probability Distributions 89 CHAPTER 7: Dealing with Discrete Probability Distributions 91 CHAPTER 8: Juggling Success and Failure with the Binomial Distribution 101 CHAPTER 9: Normalizing the Normal Distribution 111 CHAPTER 10: Approximating a Binomial with a Normal Distribution 125 CHAPTER 11: Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem 135 CHAPTER 12: Probability's Role in Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests 147 Part 4: Taking It up a Notch: Advanced Probability Models 157 CHAPTER 13: Working with the Poisson (a Nonpoisonous) Distribution 159 CHAPTER 14: Covering All Angles of the Geometric Distribution 171 CHAPTER 15: Making a Positive Out of the Negative Binomial Distribution 183 CHAPTER 16: Not Getting Hyper about the Hypergeometric Distribution 193 Part 5: For the Hotshots: Continuous Probability Models 205 CHAPTER 17: Staying in Line with the Continuous Uniform Distribution 207 CHAPTER 18: Exposing the Exponential Distribution (and Its Relationship to Poisson) 221 Part 6: The Part of Tens 233 CHAPTER 19: Top Ten Probability Mistakes 235 CHAPTER 20: Ten Probability Distributions to Compare 243 Appendix A: Tables for Reference 255 Index 265.