Introduction 1 Part 1: The Certainty of Uncertainty: Probability Basics 5 Chapter 1: Seeing Probability in Everyday Life 7 Chapter 2: Teaming up with Probability Terms and Rules 15 Chapter 3: Picturing Probabilities: Venn Diagrams, Trees, and Bayes' Theorem 29 Part 2: Counting on Probability and Betting to Win. 43 Chapter 4: Setting the Contingency Table with Probabilities. 45 Chapter 5: Unraveling Counting Rules 59 Chapter 6: Against All Odds: Probability in Gaming. 75 Part 3: From A to Binomial: Basic Probability Distributions 89 Chapter 7: Dealing with Discrete Probability Distributions. 91 Chapter 8: Juggling Success and Failure with the Binomial Distribution. 101 Chapter 9: Normalizing the Normal Distribution. 111 Chapter 10: Approximating a Binomial with a Normal Distribution 125 Chapter 11: Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem. 135 Chapter 12: Probability's Role in Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests.

147 Part 4: Taking It up a Notch: Advanced Probability Models. 157 Chapter 13: Working with the Poisson (a Nonpoisonous) Distribution. 159 Chapter 14: Covering All Angles of the Geometric Distribution. 171 Chapter 15: Making a Positive Out of the Negative Binomial Distribution. 183 Chapter 16: Not Getting Hyper about the Hypergeometric Distribution. 193 Part 5: For the Hotshots: Continuous Probability Models. 205 Chapter 17: Staying in Line with the Continuous Uniform Distribution 207 Chapter 18: Exposing the Exponential Distribution (and Its Relationship to Poisson) 221 Part 6: The Part of Tens 233 Chapter 19: Top Ten Probability Mistakes. 235 Chapter 20: Ten Probability Distributions to Compare.

243 Appendix A: Tables for Reference 255 Index 265.