CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Acknowledgments 4 CHAPTER 2 Global Macro Rules 7 2.1 Long-Term Performance of Macro Funds is Strong 7 2.2 How Do Macro Funds Make Money? 8 2.3 A Bright Future 1: Equities are Expensive 9 2.4 A Bright Future 2: Volatility Rises During QT 10 2.5 A Bright Future 3: Rates Bets with Highest Sharpe Ratio and More Profitable with Rates Substantially Above Zero 11 2.6 A Bright Future 4: Performance Cushion from Non-zero SOFR 11 2.

7 A Note on Process and Does History Really Rhyme? 13 2.8 What is Good Performance? 14 2.9 Summary 15 CHAPTER 3 It''s the Business Cycle, Stupid 17 3.1 From Boom to Bust and Back 17 3.2 What is Leading--Fundamentally? 19 3.3 But Who is Really in Front? 21 3.4 Crystal Balls or False Prophets: How Useful are the Leading Indicators? 26 3.5 Trading in the Rearview Mirror 29 3.

6 How to Trade a US Recession 33 3.7 Pricing Price Changes 40 3.8 The Third Mandate 41 3.9 Rhyming it Does, but not Repeating 45 3.10 Born in the USA 47 3.11 From China with Love 48 3.12 Trailing the Tide: Europe usually a Follower 49 3.13 India as the Next China? 53 3.

14 Summary 56 CHAPTER 4 Temporary Turmoil: Markets and (Geo) Politics 57 4.1 Geopolitical Risk the Bad Old Days 57 4.2 From Conflict to Barrel 60 4.2.1 Hedging Conflict 65 4.3 Warfare by Tariff 66 4.4 Volatility at the Ballot Box 67 4.5 Summary 77 CHAPTER 5 How to Trade Rates: A Framework 79 5.

1 A Treasure to Behold 79 5.2 It''s the Fed, Stupid 82 5.3 How to Trade a Hiking Cycle 87 5.4 Hikes are Oily 91 5.5 The Wisdom of Equity Markets 93 5.6 How to Trade an Easing Cycle 94 5.7 Trading the Curve 104 5.8 The Weight of Supply 107 5.

9 Valuation--Use Sparingly 111 5.10 Trend Following--Only in the Short Term 112 5.11 TIPS--The True Treasure 113 5.12 When Rates Markets Roar 117 5.13 Summary 118 CHAPTER 6 How to Trade Rates: The Tactics 121 6.1 The Anatomy of a Rates Sell-off 121 6.2 The Wisdom of the FOMC 126 6.3 Trading the Nonfarm Catalyst (NFC) 128 6.

4 CESI--a Busy Man''s Guide to the Economy 130 6.5 When Safety Backfires 132 6.6 A Season for Bonds? 133 6.7 Summary 134 CHAPTER 7 How to Trade Rates: Globalizing 135 7.1 Can Global Fixed-Income Markets Diverge from the Fed? 135 7.2 Bonding with Bunds 140 7.3 Gilded Gilts? 142 7.4 At the Periphery 146 7.

5 Is Japan Different? 149 7.6 Is China Different? 152 7.7 EM Rates--Wagged by the Global Macro Dog 153 7.8 One-way or Two-way Traffic? 154 7.9 Summary 157 CHAPTER 8 How to Trade Equities: A Framework 159 8.1 Equities in the Big Picture: The Only Way is Up 159 8.2 Equities and the Business Cycle 161 8.3 Equities and the Fed 163 8.

4 Equities and Earnings 171 8.5 Equities and Liquidity 179 8.6 Equities and Bubbles 180 8.7 Valuation Not Very Valuable 189 8.8 Winners Keep Winning 191 8.9 Small, Not Often Beautiful 193 8.10 Summary 195 CHAPTER 9 How to Trade Equities: The Tactics 197 9.1 Spotting the Peaks 197 9.

2 Bottom Watching 198 9.3 Positioning Pain Trades 205 9.4 Insiders have Insight 205 9.5 Buybacks--Don''t Have Your Back 208 9.6 There is a Season for it 209 9.7 Of Good News Bears--and Vice Versa 213 9.8 The FOMC Effect 217 9.9 Summary 218 CHAPTER 10 How to Trade Equities: Globalizing 221 10.

1 The Cycle goes Global 221 10.2 Global Equities meet FX 225 10.3 Trading Tokyo 226 10.4 Trading Frankfurt 228 10.5 Trading London 229 10.6 Trading Shanghai 232 10.7 Trading the Rest of EM 240 10.8 Tactical Considerations 243 10.

9 Summary 245 CHAPTER 11 How to Trade Credit 247 11.1 Credit in the Big Picture 247 11.2 Defaults in Motion 250 11.3 No Credit to the Fed 252 11.4 (Dis)crediting Value 254 11.5 Carrying Credit 256 11.6 Junk or Quality? 257 11.7 Rising Angels and Falling Stars 257 11.

8 The Supply Fallacy 259 11.9 The Credit Canary 260 11.10 The Loans Logic 265 11.11 Choosing Sides in Credit: EM Versus US 266 11.12 Limited Foreign Supply, Unlimited Demand? 267 11.13 Summary 268 CHAPTER 12 How to Trade FX: The Framework 269 12.1 USD Smile, Smirk, or Cloud? 269 12.2 The USD and the Business Cycle 272 12.

3 A Composite Model 276 12.4 The USD in Bubbly Times 277 12.5 JPY is Special 278 12.6 Factors for FX 282 12.7 Living Off Carry 283 12.8 Value Works Too 288 12.9 Riding the Trend 289 12.10 Hide in Surprise 291 12.

11 Summary 292 CHAPTER 13 How to Trade FX: The Tactics 293 13.1 The Fed and the USD 293 13.2 Intervention--Burning Reserves, Buying Time 295 13.3 Go with the Flow or Against? Do Both! 299 13.4 Technicals: Intraday Reversals 300 13.5 No Basis for the Basis 301 13.6 Summary 302 CHAPTER 14 How to Trade Commodities 303 14.1 Commodities: They Have Their Moments 303 14.

2 Commodities and the Business Cycle 310 14.3 Riding Commodity Trends 313 14.4 Carry in the Ground 313 14.5 Bottom''s Up 315 14.6 Ace of Base 318 14.7 Gold: A 3,000-year-old Bubble that Refuses to Burst? 323 14.8 How to Trade with Energy 329 14.9 How to Trade OPEC Meetings 332 14.

10 Positioned for Failure 335 14.11 Summary 335 CHAPTER 15 How to Allocate 337 15.1 A Regime Investing Approach 337 15.2 How to Protect Against Stagflation 342 15.3 Strategic Asset Allocation for Regime Agnostics 346 15.4 The Choice of Equity Versus Credit Risk 347 15.5 The Choice of Government Bonds Versus Equities 348 15.6 Don''t Risk Your Budget, Budget Your Risk 352 15.

7 Tactical, Tactical, Asset Allocation 354 15.8 Summary 356 CHAPTER 16 Non Traditional Assets: Private Assets and Crypto 357 16.1 Macro and Crypto--A Match Made in Heaven 357 16.2 How Much to Allocate to Bitcoin? 360 16.3 Following the Crypto Trend 361 16.4 Publicizing Private Assets 362 16.5 A smooth ride? 363 16.6 Infrastructure (and Real Estate) for Stagflation 365 16.

7 All Managers are Not Created Equal 366 16.8 Summary 368 Bibliography 369 Index 375.